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🔄 The MAGA trade

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high as Trump won re-election

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It was a late night for many Americans, including yours truly, as we stayed up well past our bedtimes to watch the outcome of the election. 

President-elect Donald Trump took the lead early on, with the early results playing out in his favor. But, as was proven as the night matured, it wasn’t just a mirage. It felt like — as a non-political reporter who occasionally dabbles — there wasn’t a single swing state with Harris securing a so-called easy win, even in counties that saw Biden, well, trump Trump last election.

Folks over on Crypto Twitter (sorry, X, but Crypto X just doesn’t have the same ring to it) handed Trump the victory early on, following Polymarket’s odds which quickly saw Trump take a hefty lead over Harris.

In a pre-victory victory speech, Trump said that his campaign was the “greatest political movement of all time.”

“We’re going to help our country heal,” he added.

“We made history for a reason tonight,” Trump said, alluding to a win that would happen just a few hours after his speech. “I’m excited to be your 47th and your 45th president.”

Trump said that a “star” was born in Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who’s become a very vocal supporter of Trump this election.

“We have to protect our geniuses, we don’t have that many of them,” Trump added. 

Meanwhile, we didn’t hear from Vice President Kamala Harris last night. Instead, Harris co-chair Cedric Richmond told a crowd at Harris HQ that the votes were still being counted a couple of hours before Trump took the stage. 

The enthusiasm was also evident in bitcoin’s price, which took off and carved out fresh all-time highs not once but twice in the same hour. Honestly, I’ll admit I was pretty surprised to see such a push after all of my conversations with analysts, who thought a Trump victory or lead could see a bump but perhaps not an all-time high. I don’t think anyone’s complaining though. 

With the Trump win, “expect a green light for crypto and an SEC power shuffle. Trump’s pro-business stance means open doors, with CFTC oversight and a crypto-friendly regulatory landscape in reach,” Thesis general counsel Katherine Snow said.

The night definitely marked a win for the crypto voter, which was very much championed by Coinbase’s CEO Brian Armstrong and CLO Paul Grewal. 

The pro-crypto voters notched a few wins, whether you include the presidential race which could be argued as being a win for crypto given Trump’s previous promises to remove SEC Chair Gary Gensler and potential pro-crypto policies — though to be clear, we have yet to see anything materialize on that front yet.

Let’s look at Ohio’s senate race, which saw pro-crypto Republican Bernie Moreno unseat anti-crypto Democrat Sherrod Brown. 

A Fairshake-linked crypto super PAC, Defend American Jobs, was a big contributor to Moreno, supporting him with millions of dollars per FEC filings.  

But it wasn’t all wins, pro-crypto candidate John Deaton wasn’t able to upset Senator Elizabeth Warren in their Massachusetts race despite millions of campaign donations. 

It certainly was a long night, but now that the wait is over, it’ll be interesting to see how everything plays out — and whether campaign promises are fulfilled.

— Katherine Ross

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  • Bitcoin’s holding on to $74,600, up nearly 9% according to Coinbase.

  • ETH topped $2,600, also up around 8% following Trump’s reelection.

  • The market cap for Solana memecoins topped $12 billion, up over 29% in the last 24 hours per CoinGecko.

  • Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows totaling $116 million on Wednesday, with BlackRock’s IBIT notching $44 million in outflows.

  • In pre-market trading, mining stocks such as Riot are soaring after the election was called for Trump. RIOT and MARA are up over 10%.

⬆️ The Trump bump

Those who bet that a Trump victory — or at least the first inklings of one — would fuel a new all-time high for bitcoin were right.

Bitcoin markets soared just after 10 pm ET on election night, briefly surpassing $75,000. It was a remarkable move to correspond with a remarkable political comeback for Trump, who earlier this morning was projected to win enough Electoral College votes to become the 47th president of the United States.

According to TradingView data, bitcoin crossed $70K during the morning voting hours before slipping back beneath that level for much of the afternoon trade. As the polls closed on the East Coast, bitcoin regained that level and has held it since. 

Source: TradingView

Over in equities, pre-market moves indicate that US indices will open in the green. The Dow appears poised to open up just over 3% as of the time of writing, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq primed to open 1.5% and 2.2%, respectively.

Crypto equities appear set for a strong performance today. Coinbase looks set to open up more than 12% at $217.8 after closing Tuesday at $193.96. MicroStrategy’s pre-market trading performance suggests a similarly strong open, up nearly 12%.

Perhaps the strongest market performer on Election Night was Polymarket, which had indicated a Trump win heading into the vote. Trump’s odds hit 90% as bitcoin’s price crested and stayed above that level throughout the duration of the night. The election results hewed closer to the Polymarket odds than those of many polls heading into Election Day. 

With this morning’s victory call, Théo, the French Polymarket whale, might have had the best night of all, having potentially more than doubled his $30 million stake.

— Michael McSweeney

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  • DeFi tokens like Aave and Uniswap are soaring post-Trump victory due to a potentially more favorable environment.

  • Anthony Scaramucci thinks bitcoin tops $170,000 no matter who’s in the Oval Office.

  • Financial institutions could build on Solana rather than Ethereum despite the former’s memecoin reputation.

  • Animoca Brands expects Polymarket users to stick around even after the election market resolves.

  • If Trump ousts SEC Chair Gary Gensler, he may look to put Hester Peirce or Robinhood’s Dan Gallagher in the top spot at the regulatory agency, Fortune reported.

Q: When will we see our next all-time high?

After what we saw last night, I think it could be just around the corner. 

It’s obvious now just how hungry some are for the move higher, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see bitcoin top $80,000 by the end of the month instead of the end of the year. I’ll caveat that I’m not an analyst and this is just me speculating. 

And I’ll also rain on my own parade and say that we probably need some sort of excuse to carve out a new all-time high. Whether we get that excuse this month or by the end of Q1, who knows? 

What I can say is that the momentum is there when you tap in, and, boy, bitcoin is quick to react.

— Katherine Ross

I’m inclined to agree with my colleague (see above) that a new ATH could be close at hand. As of the time of writing, the price is hovering around $74,400.

If you’re looking for catalysts, here’s an easy one: Amid the post-vote celebrations, the next time Trump mentions crypto — especially the promised firing of Gary Gensler or the creation of a national bitcoin reserve — one can easily imagine a market pop on the accompanying euphoria. 

It’s that kind of market right now. 

— Michael McSweeney