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⚾ The Big Leagues

Major exchange listings are milestones for cryptocurrencies: More exposure means more potential liquidity — which should convert to higher prices.

And many times that’s the case. I spent the morning going over new listings on Binance and Coinbase so far this year, and I found that out of the 42 non-stablecoin tokens to hit either platform:

• About 80% rose more than 10% at some point since their announcements. 

• Nearly half surged by more than 50%.

• Almost 30% more than doubled.

Granted, not all of the tokens newly supported by Binance and Coinbase this year were already trading elsewhere. Around 35% — 15 tokens — were either listed or announced to be listed on the same day as their initial launches. Whatever effect listings had on those particular tokens is harder to gauge.

Tracking each freshly-listed tokens from their initial support until today however shows that it’s quite tough for debutants to hold onto bumps associated with Coinbase and Binance listings.

Only 12 out of the 42 (~29%) have gained value since they reached either exchange — but three of those are memecoins NEIRO, TURBO and BABYDOGE, which Binance listed today, triggering pumps of between 15% and 60%.

The chart above shows how this year’s Binance and Coinbase listings have trended. 

The green dots indicate the peak returns for each token following their support by either exchange — how much each crypto rallied at some point after the announcement — while the purple dot shows its return as of this morning.

Notice how many purple dots are in the red area representing negative returns since their listings were first announced. Around 38%, or 16, of the new listings have seen their prices collapse by more than half. 

Of course, there are successes. RWA-focused Ondo Finance has seen its token explode by up to 560% following its Coinbase listing in January, and it’s still up 180% after a correction. 

AMM Velodrome also popped by over 500% before retracing to be 240% ahead since its listing that month.

Still, the results suggest major listings are a double-edged sword, especially at times when it’s not so clear whether bitcoin and the rest of crypto is really in a bull market.

Binance and Coinbase could be good for a short-term price bump, but sticking the landing is rare.

— David Canellis

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• BTC and ETH have slipped 2% and 4% apiece over the past day. ($BTC: $58,760; ETH: $2,310.)

• Only two top-100 tokens are up more than 1%: FTM (2.7%) and TRX (1.6%).

• HNT, NOT and BTT are retracing the hardest this week, down between 12% and 6.7%.

• TON’s total value locked has bounced 25% since Telegram CEO Durov’s release on bail, from 57.4 million TON ($315.7 million) to 71.71 million TON ($394.35 million).

• Solana and Bitcoin are neck-and-neck for fees generated in the past 30 days: $19.363 million to $19.265 million, per Token Terminal.

 👊 HODLing patterns

Prediction markets continue to notch some wins. Polymarket, as of this morning, is looking poised to potentially hit a $1 billion market for its US election outcome. 

Right now, the market sits at $920 million, so we’re still $80 million shy of the big B. Though, at this rate, it wouldn’t be surprising if that milestone is crossed ahead of the election. 

While FBI investigations are ongoing, folks are digesting the apparent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump — which would be the second in a matter of months — and it’s driving a deluge of comments on Polymarket early Monday.

Per the market, Vice President Kamala Harris is in the lead with a very slim margin, 50% to Trump’s 49%. 

But as Polymarket sees more adoption, the rest of crypto is struggling. After the bounce last week, bitcoin once again fell over the weekend, from $60,200 to as low as $58,300 this morning.

Total liquidations, per CoinGlass, topped $178 million over the past day — 85% of them coming from long positions.

“I think the entire market is holding its breath and waiting for November to see which way it'll go. We really have no idea… It looks like a coin toss right now. So I think that's why crypto has been trading sideways for months, and I think nothing will change until November,” Nic Carter of Castle Island Ventures told me last week.

“If Trump wins, you'll see Bitcoin into the $80,000 [to $100,000] range. If Harris wins, [it’s] basically unchanged. It really also depends how the Senate goes. It's very hard to talk about crypto, even in any aspect of crypto, whether it's Bitcoin, early-stage startups, or DeFi [because] it all hinges on the election, which is unfortunate. I wish it was not that way, but that's very much the case.”

ETC Group noted this morning that its Cryptoasset Sentiment Index continued to be slightly bearish, though there were some outperformers last week. 

But back to bitcoin: Here are some levels to watch this week.

“We remain within the flag pattern (blue lines) which is defining wave (4) (yellow line) of larger Wave III (orange line). The longer this flag pattern continues the greater the potential that this becomes a ‘failed flag’ and bitcoin prices fall through the bottom of the channel,” Ledn’s John Glover noted. $49,000 continues to be the level to be wary of.

So, we continue to hold in the ‘wait and see’ pattern, which has paralyzed parts of crypto. Let’s just hope we see a bit more action before November.

— Katherine Ross

• A looming rate cut cycle could revitalize DeFi lending markets, according to Bernstein. 

• Wall Street companies continue to eye the custody sector, Bloomberg reported.

• MicroStrategy made a $1.1 billion bitcoin purchase between August and September. 

• A private key hack drained DeltaPrime of $6 million, CoinDesk reported. 

• The Donald Trump-linked project World Liberty Financial is set for a debut today.

Q: Is all adoption good adoption?

Now this is something that will divide folks. 

I can see arguments for and against, honestly so perhaps I fall somewhere in the middle.

I think most adoption is good, given that it increases the eyes and usability of this space. But with that comes bad actors and folks who just don’t get crypto, and that’s where it gets tricky. 

It’s a fine line to strike a delicate balance. But those who understand crypto and push adoption for the good of many — instead of the pockets of few — are the ones that encompass “good” adoption. 

Or, to put it simply, those who get it, get it. And, honestly, we should celebrate the ones that do.

— Katherine Ross

There are obvious edge cases where adoption is probably a net negative. 

Pig-butcherers choosing tether as their currency of choice is likely pure bad. Exit scammers peddling DeFi vaporware are too. 

In some instances, it’s not so clear. Ransomware hackers demanding bitcoin and only bitcoin is bad publicity for the space for sure.

But that ransomware hackers adopted bitcoin so widely and readily in turn says something about the asset itself. Cybercriminals on the world stage trusted that the bitcoin milked from their targets could not be clawed back — giving validity to its primary value prop of censorship resistance. 

Those major ransomware incidents could be seen as advertisements for bitcoin, albeit unsavory. 

All adoption might not be good adoption, but it can still prove a point. Donald Trump and his team can launch a DeFi project because nobody can really stop him — which is why we’re all here, to some degree.

— David Canellis