📍 We’re here on the bull market chart

This is bitcoin’s fourth or fifth bull market, depending on how you look at it. Based on how long the others have lasted, we’re about a third of the way through our current cycle.

Analysts won’t agree on when bull cycles begin and end. But for the sake of plotting them beside each other, let’s say they start when prices hit cycle lows and end when a downtrend is properly confirmed post-peak.

• Bitcoin has been in a bull market for 480 days, or nearly 16 months

• The previous bull market, between late 2018 and 2022, was its longest to date: three and a half years, or almost 1,300 days.

• The two prior cycles lasted about 1,000 and 1,150 days.

There's an argument for treating Oct. 2009 to mid-2010 as its first-ever bull cycle, one that included a 4-million percent pump (from $0.00076392 to $31.91) in under 300 days. 

It probably makes more sense to call that price discovery.

(Bitcoin returns during bull markets have been shrinking but their durations haven't.)

Bitcoin is more-or-less tracking the previous two bull markets for returns, currently 325%. At this point in its 2011-2015 bull market, BTC had already gone 20x.

If Tom Lee can make bombastic bitcoin price predictions like clockwork, then we can navel gaze about how long our current market will last.

If it keeps on as long as the previous three, this bull market would last another 680 days, wrapping up in February 2026.

There are inklings that could turn out to be true. Bitcoin this time around has hit an all-time high before its supply halving. Usually that happens about a year or so later.

Halving-truther reasoning goes that halvings are the primary catalysts for bull markets (supply does get cut in half, after all). 

So, whatever caused the all-time highs after the previous halvings is still on track to hit sometime after April 20 — which means the bitcoin bull could continue well into next year.

— David Canellis

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📜 New rules from ‘Crypto Mom’

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce yet again took a critical stance against how her colleagues communicate with — and enforce actors — in the digital asset space. 

In a speech given at the Practising Law Institute’s SEC Speaks event Tuesday, Peirce likened the current state of the SEC to a “secret garden” in which market participants fend for themselves when trying to act in compliance. 

Dealing with commissioners is a maze, Peirce complained, and companies are often met with “crickets” when they try to engage with the securities regulator. 

But that will change someday, Peirce added, and offered tips on how to make the most of time spent with regulators when that day arrives. 

Here’s what she proposed:

• Come with an agenda, and share any materials way ahead of time.

• If you’re coming in with a new idea, you should have already done the legal analysis. (Yes, this would be a waste of time if the Commission ends up denying your proposal, but doing the legwork is still your best bet).

• Break down your proposal into small sections, outlining each legal question separately.

• If others trying to do something similar, it’s up to you to make sure your messaging is consistent.

• If the Staff isn’t into it, approach their concerns from a legal perspective – get down to exactly why they are saying it isn’t feasible and which laws are in question.

• Document everything. Every meeting, every email, all of it. 

• Be realistic — but don’t give up.

If it sounds like the onus is on the company, it’s because it is. The SEC isn’t exactly an open door these days, and it seems like Chairman Gary Gensler’s favorite phrase is “the rules already exist.” 

So, yeah. Interested parties are the ones who have to put in the work. 

Make it easy to get on board and hard to justify a reason not to, Peirce said. It’s not easy, but right now, it’s your best bet. 

— Casey Wagner

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🎷 Ignore those ETF blues 

The Ark 21Shares bitcoin ETF notched a first this week: higher daily outflows than Grayscale’s bitcoin ETF. 

The $87 million out of Ark sparked conversations within the crypto community on X. But the fund stayed neutral to end Wednesday, reporting flat flows while Grayscale saw another $75 million out of GBTC.

Flows are a good way to gauge how the funds have performed, allowing investors to get a snapshot of potential interest. For example, back when bitcoin was carving out new all-time highs, the flows also broke records. 

But it’s been roughly four months since the Securities and Exchange Commission approved the ETFs, and while these ETFs are not yet a mature section of the funds market, they’re not exactly new anymore, either. 

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said those concerned about the outflows from Ark’s fund are demonstrating a “greedy and short-sighted nature” because it’s normal for ETFs to see outflows.

“I’m personally surprised [BlackRock’s] IBIT and [Fidelity’s] FBTC haven’t yet” seen outflows, he added. 

It’s not that bitcoin ETF-focused investors haven’t gotten used to outflows, with the caveat that those outflows stem from Grayscale’s fund, which has undergone pressure as the FTX estate reportedly sold its shares. 

Right now, the outflows are likely — though not confirmed — to be coming from Genesis as another bankrupt entity sells shares to pay back creditors. 

But, as Balchunas noted, there will be days when other funds see outflows. It’s par for the course, and — while Wednesday was a day for inflows — investors should get used to the uncomfortable truth that fund flows will remain dynamic as the category matures.

The fresh data from Ark shows that outflows aren’t on track to become a pattern, and should be taken with a grain of salt. Not everyone has diamond hands — and that’s okay.

— Katherine Ross

• Tokenization and cross-border payments? The BIS and seven central banks are embarking on a new crypto project. 

• Galaxy Digital is raising a $100 million venture fund, Bloomberg writes. 

• Ponzi scheme OneCoin’s former head of “legal and compliance” has been given a four-year prison sentence. 

• Crypto speculators on Polymarket are currently giving Donald Trump better odds to win the US presidential election this November. 

• Google is weighing whether to charge money for new AI-enhanced “premium” search features, according to the FT.

You wake up a Belgian digitization minister in the midst of your country's European Union presidency.

You’re $65 million in the hole with the EU for development costs for blockchain projects that were meant to revolutionize how the bloc operates. You’ve got nothing to show for it. But you’ve been having loads of fun hanging out in the crypto-virtual world, The Sandbox, either way.

What would you do? 

If you’re Matthieu Michel, you’d reboot the whole thing as a vague metaverse play called “Europeum” and keep the show on the road. 

— David Canellis