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 🙂 A positive outlook

Here’s the deal: We know that Trump was definitely the favorable candidate for a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment. 

And it’s clear from a lot of the reactions we’ve seen — either from bitcoin or crypto stocks like COIN — that investors are really banking on that environment over the next four years. 

While I will once again repeat that we don’t have a clear policy framework from President-elect Trump, let’s just say that Trump’s one big task when he’s in office is somehow getting SEC Chair Gary Gensler ousted from his post as the head of the SEC.

If he’s successful, whoever Trump selects is likely to be “more lenient toward the crypto industry, perhaps focusing more on bringing regulatory clarity than a constant slew of enforcement actions. After all, Trump has even launched his own crypto trading platform,” Pillsbury partner David Oliwenstein told me.

Empire cohost Jason Yanowitz told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday that there “needs” to be a change in SEC leadership. Who would take the place of Gensler is still way up in the air though if we’re listening to rumors and reports, then Robinhood’s Dan Gallagher’s name may be floating around the Trump sphere.

When I spoke to Oliwenstein — before Trump was officially announced as the winner — he also pointed out that one key role in the SEC is the director of enforcement for the enforcement division. 

“The former director of enforcement at the SEC under Gensler, Gubir Grewal, left his position in October, but his replacement, Acting Director Sanjay Wadhwa, will likely be at least as aggressive in his enforcement actions against the crypto industry. If Sanjay receives a permanent appoint as director, the market should expect aggressive enforcement in general and specifically with respect to crypto assets,” Oliwenstein said. Though, under a Trump presidency, it may be unlikely that Wadhwa will receive that appointment. 

Looking outside of the SEC — and honestly, the Trump presidency — Election Night was a win for a Republican Senate as well, with new pro-crypto folks taking seats, partially due to the immense support of crypto super PACs like Fairshake.

“With the amount of influence and political capital that the crypto industry has garnered over the past 12 months, it is likely that a stablecoin bill and market structure bill will pass in the next two years regardless of which administration we are dealing with. In addition to stablecoin legislation and the market structure legislation, the most important issue is tax treatment for crypto,” Texas Blockchain Council president Lee Bratcher said. 

“A de minimis exemption is needed before the US can truly become a global crypto leader …This is a very pinnacle moment in the industry, as regulators have now become more open to working on digital asset policy and pushing the industry towards innovation.”

— Katherine Ross

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• It’s been 16 hours since bitcoin’s all-time high of $76,243.98. Current price: $75,000.

• DeFi tokens lead memecoins amid the presidential rally: RAY, ENA, AAVE and LDO are up between 22% and 15% in the past day, with NEIRO somewhere in the middle.

• Total Polymarket open interest has halved since the election markets were settled, from $519.8 million to $258 million.

• Average bitcoin transaction fees are steady, even with record prices, per Blockworks Research data.

• Daily DEX volumes are at their highest since August: $12.5 billion yesterday and over $11 billion today already.

⛽ The best pumps

Biden dropped out of the presidential race too soon for Trump to get proper revenge for 2016, and he’ll have to settle for taking out his VP instead.

Luckily, there’s still time to beat Biden in perhaps the only popular vote that really counts: bitcoin.

Bitcoin already set record highs alongside the stock market around Trump’s win this week — the S&P 500 is up 4% in the past month to bitcoin’s 18%.

That’s much more than what happened after Trump’s win in 2016, which was good for a brief 5% jump. 

Obama’s win in 2012 meanwhile coincided with bitcoin’s price dropping by one-fifth in the leadup to Election Day, before recovering over following weeks.

But Biden’s victory in 2020 aligned with a far bigger rally. Bitcoin had risen 30% in the month heading into the vote and continued on for another 50% in the 30 days after. 

This was the start of bitcoin’s monstrous pandemic run from $10,000 to $60,000, as Trump was handing over the White House, which spanned September 2020 to March 2021.

Of course, bitcoin today is a much bigger beast. BTC’s market cap was under $300 billion at the time — now it’s almost $1.5 trillion. It takes much more to move the needle so far.

If it happened, it would be big. Bitcoin rallied up to 87% in the 60 days surrounding Biden’s election win. 

BTC has so far gone about 20% for Trump, and another 70% would put bitcoin at almost $130,000 before year’s end.

We’re gonna need bigger bulls.

— David Canellis

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• FTX co-founder Gary Wang’s lawyers are seeking to avoid prison time for the former crypto executive, arguing that he’s been cooperative with authorities ahead of his Nov. 20 sentencing.

• CoinShares analysts say that President-elect Trump’s biggest contribution to crypto could come from passing the Bitcoin Act. 

• Blockworks’ Ben Strack looked at all of Trump’s crypto campaign promises.

• Dogecoin rallied on Wednesday, looking ahead to Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s potential White House role.

• Pump.fun generated over $30 million in revenue in October, hitting a record high.

Q: Is the US open for business when it comes to crypto from now on?

I know everyone’s eager about this, but — as you might know by now — I tend to be cautious. 

So while it looks like this could certainly be the case, I’d hesitate to say yes with my whole chest. We need to see actual action, a new head of the SEC and a friendlier discourse with this incoming administration and politicians on the Hill.

For now I’m cautious, but optimistic. And I think that’s a good place to be for now. 

— Katherine Ross

Whatever happens with Gensler is one thing, but I worry the sprawling net of crypto cases the agency has cast will just drag, and drag, and drag.

I’d probably hold back celebrating much of anything until we see what happens to Uniswap and Coinbase. 

Although, it feels increasingly likely that both cases could just muddy matters while the SEC is reprogrammed. Best to be patient.

— David Canellis